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On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced that message, saying the central bank’s key rate hasn’t been restraining the economy for “very long” and that “the bottom line is that policy hasn’t been restrictive enough for long enough.” “The Fed will keep pushing until it fixes the inflation issue,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas. That’s why some economists caution that a full-blown recession may still occur. Still, threats loom: The Fed is all but certain to keep raising interest rates, at least once more, and to keep them high for months, thereby continuing to impose heavy borrowing costs on consumers and businesses. Job cuts in those fields, as a result, are less likely to sink the overall economy. is experiencing what they call a “richcession”: Major job cuts, they note, have been concentrated in higher-paying industries like technology and finance, heavy with professional workers who generally have the financial cushions to withstand layoffs. Some say the economy is experiencing a “rolling recession,” in which only some industries shrink while the overall economy remains above water. “This is leading many to rightly question whether the long-forecast recession is really inevitable or whether a soft-landing of the economy” is possible.Īnalysts point to two trends that may help stave off an economic contraction.

economy is genuinely displaying signs of resilience,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, a tax and consulting firm. And so does the belief among some economists that the United States might actually achieve an elusive “soft landing,” in which growth slows but households and businesses spend enough to avoid a full-blown recession. Gas prices have dropped, and grocery prices have leveled off, giving Americans more spending power. Despite much higher borrowing costs, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive streak of interest rate hikes, consumers keep spending, and employers keep hiring. If not this quarter, then by next quarter. WASHINGTON (AP) - The warnings have been sounded for more than a year: A recession is going to hit the United States.

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